Business Models and Business Realities

 

Business Models: As Fun As They Look And Just As Comprehensible

To date, most of my thoughts on business models have been pipe dreams.  I haven't really done much market research, because I haven't determined (past some vague quantification) what market I'm trying to tap into yet.

I currently have a few avenues for potential revenue generation - 

• Use my blog as a vehicle to showcase my skills and wait until I reach an unspecified critical mass of readership.  Expect that someone in that readership will need to utilize my skillset for consulting or other assistance with their business.
• If my blog reaches a large enough readership, I can generate revenue from my readership.
• I wait until a few other leads from friends pan out and work for them.
• I go into something like affiliate marketing or drop shipping.
• I re-enter the workforce with a stronger brand built from posting on LinkedIn, my blog, and Github.
• I find something tangentially related to current output once the opportunity presents itself.

More of a wing and a prayer than a business plan, but I expected this going in.

As it stands today, I'm expecting to showcase my abilities in software engineering, management, writing, or all three in order to generate income.  I'm relatively confident that the mix of them will foment some type of revenue with enough patience.  I mean, I've been successful in those fields until now (with a healthy dose of luck thrown in), so that's a reasonable expectation, right?

Except - the voice in the back of my head constantly undermines any confidence I have in my abilities.  What if everything I've done until now has solely been the result of luck and the universe has determined that my luck is now up?

And, that, to a very large extent, is why I decided to undertake this journey.  It allows me a level of self-determination when I'm (largely) cut off from any sustaining network.  Then again, it's equally possible that anything that happens to me from here on out is as much a result of luck as anything prior, but if I benefit from a lifetime of lucky breaks, to paraphrase Arthur C. Clarke (again) - is that indistinguishable from skill?

For what it's worth, I don't believe in the myth of the self-made man.  Everyone who's achieved a level of success where they unapologetically and incessantly carp about pulling themselves up by their bootstraps (almost exclusively to those in more unfortunate circumstances) had assistance somewhere.  You don't become a billionaire based on your inherent genius (and, if you're a billionaire, you probably ain't.  Sorry, I refuse to equate wealthiest with most capable.  Objectivists you can stop reading now).

But, I'm not a fatalist.  If you're lucky, lean into the luck to enhance your skillset.  Don't sideline anything that provides a genuine opportunity.  Gift horses and all that.

Ok, so I started a business to quell my insecurities about my place in the world (I wouldn't be the first person to do so).  But how do I plan to make money?

Right now, the first two bullet points above seem to be the most viable.  Given that consulting requires networking and salesmanship and I am historically bad at both, I need to find a manner to market myself via other means.  Hence this blog.  That means that bullet point #2 is really my best starting option.

And here, I have done some basic research.  The handful of sources I've perused collectively indicates (within wiiiiide margins) that writing 1000-2000 word posts 2-3 times a week for 3-9 months is most likely to lead to viable income generation (and by viable, I mean $1000/month - so not actually viable).

Kharma seems to have sent me some signals as well.  I recently finished listening to an episode on The Grateful Dead from A History of Rock in 500 Songs where the author makes a strong case for the band's influence on the self-publishing model.  (Sidebar: I cannot recommend this podcast enough.  The author, Andrew Hickey, thoroughly researches his material, and your preconceived notions of the series, whatever they may be, will be upended.)

In it, there's a quote attributed to the founder of WIRED magazine that boils down to - you need 1,000 dedicated fans to pay you $100 per year to make a living.  I've kicked around a similar model in my head for some time, but hearing it echoed during the exact moment that it intersects with a key question in my life has helped solidify my thinking.

I don't think that, with my writing alone, I'm generating enough value to have anyone pay me $100 per year.  But, I don't think it's unreasonable that I could generate enough value that eventually 10,000 people would give me $10 (or even $20) per year.  And, if I never reach such lofty goals, and I can only get 1,000 people to pay $10 or $20 (or even 100 people), it means I created value for someone, which is the goal of a business, right?  It's not self-sustaining, but in the grand scheme of things, it's still an impressive accomplishment.

I'd prefer a subscription or donation model over advertising because it generates a better experience for everyone.  But, if the subscription model doesn't pan out, but the ad one does, I'd have no qualms about shifting.  

Advertising is marketing and companies need to market themselves. I can't complain.  This blog, in essence, is me attempting to market myself while also attempting to impart either advice or entertainment.  I don't know how long I'd be able to keep up an inwardly directed, perpetual hype machine if that were my sole blogging purpose.  I'm the type of person who gets anxious when servers devote too much attention to me at restaurants.

In many cases, ads help keep subscription fees lower.  However, I understand people's privacy concerns and the experience of most small sites with ads is just crap, so I'd like to have willing customers who subsidize me rather than serve pop-ups about your favorite bitcoins.

I also want to generate value either via entertainment, education, or services rendered.  I see a lot of businesses that make money simply through the promise of telling you how to make money.  They require payment with no promise of return, which is the very definition of a Ponzi scheme.

If they offer entertainment, then they're creating value - you're amused.  Otherwise, they're just enriching their own coffers and wasting everyone's time in the interim.  If, at the end of the day, you're claiming to be a career coach, but your entire coaching scheme involves separating people from their savings, I don't think you're a business success regardless of your bank balance.

I feel similarly about things like drop-shipping or affiliate marketing.  It's one thing to create a middle market to offer greater efficiency or enhanced service.  But, now, it seems like these markets exist simply to generate income, which offers no benefit to the greater world.  I dunno, maybe these people are more likely to stimulate the economy with their income.  Maybe.

I'm not averse to people making money by any legal means (and all of the above are legal).  People have kids to pay and bills to feed.  I, personally, would have a hard time sleeping though, if I don't think I'm trying to offer value to anyone else other than myself.  It can be nominal, but it should be something.  

And, with that, I guess I've spent about 1,000 words to say - 

My starting business model is content creation in the tech and management space with expected revenue derived from subscriptions or donations.  I'm shooting for 100 subscribers by year's end with a $5 target per subscriber.  I do not intend to paywall my primary comment.  I would prefer to either offer premium content or, if the model is amenable, sustain my business via donations.

Man, it feels weird (and really scary) when you put it in writing.

Until next time my human and robot friends.